The End Of The Mobile MENS Club - Report from CTIA Orlando

Report also at: http://www.venturebeat.com/contributors/2007/03/28/the-end-of-the-mobile-mens-club/

Just a short few years ago, the wireless industry used to be largely influenced (or controlled some might say), by the wireless MENS club. That is to say, Motorola, Ericsson, Nokia and Siemens (MENS), largely European vendors, were the dominant players in mobile handsets, and in providing the underlying network infrastructure.

The wireless world is shifting (if the recent troubles at Motorola and Siemens weren’t enough of a wake-up call). As you stand here at the bi-annual US wireless conference, CTIA, you will see some unfamiliar new names flexing their muscles.

What’s striking is to see the major presence of Korean and Chinese brands such as Samsung, LG, Huawei, ZTE (among others). And there are a new breed of Chinese players such as HTC, Quanta, TCL/Alcatel coming right behind them.

For example, recent announcements this past month from these new players have included:

• HTC, a leader in the smartphone devices just today at CTIA in Orlando, HTC announced a hybrid “shift” device (see image above) that is a blend of a traditional phone and a mini-laptop, with a slider QWERTY keyboard integrated with a “traditional” bar phone.

• LG, a relative newcomer to US mobile handsets just 7 years ago, recently announced it has taken the #2 market share spot in mobile handsets in the US, with a 17.2% share in Q3 2006.

• Huawei is gaining momentum in UMTS (3G networks) with 28 network wins in 2006 (purportedly the leader of UMTS network wins in 2006). Obviously, this puts major pressure on Nortel, Ercisson and Lucent-Alcatel across all their network deals.

• ZTE, has announced 3G handset deals with major players Telefonica in Spain, and is building 3G handsets for Vodafone in the UK.

A short 7 years ago, these companies were NOBODIES on the wireless stage, but now they are striving for leadership positions.

There will be fierce competition and continued price pressure as these players from Japan, Korea, and China grow. The historical MENS club incumbents will fight back hard, and a number of these key players (Nokia in particular) will leverage their own assets, multi-product platforms, and manufacturing experience to stave off the price pressure. BUT increasingly, many of us in this wireless and mobile industry will be spending time in Seoul, Taipei, Beijing (and yes…maybe even Ningbo) to find the next big ideas, as well as build relationships with this important part of the ecosystem.

For those interested in driving forward the next generation of mobile applications, this increased competition is goodness. Players like Sharp, LG and Samsung helped accelerate growth of photo-phones, color phone, and music phones into the US and Europe marketplaces. If your company has historically been focused only “in-region” in the US or Europe, it’s a worthwhile investment to reach out to these new Asian players.

The Third Wave of Mobile Data

Mobile Data 1.0 - Text on Ugly Phones
When I started out at Openwave as CMO in January 2001, part of my job was to posture the greatness of WAP. As you can imagine, that was a difficult task --- As is now pretty obvious, with black and white text phones with no graphics capability, the "mobile web 1.0" was a pretty crummy user experience. At this time, a combination of ten+ second setup times, and high latency on the un-tuned GSM and GPRS networks, and poorly written WAP applications basically made the experience unusable. Some witty writers in the UK described this first phase as the "WAPlash" phase of the market... I suppose it certainly was..

Mobile Data 2.0 - Graphics on Color Phones; J2ME MIDP2 arrives..
In the past 5 years has been the healthy second phase of mobile data and mobile content, with the emergence of color phones, picture phones, polyphonic ringers, and the proliferation of Java MIDP2 across a wide range of handsets. We saw the emergence of LG, Samsung, Sanyo, and Sharp into North America - pushing forward the pace of handset development. The first wave of successful mobile data content companies such as Glu Mobile, Jamdat, MQube, WiderThan, Jamba/Jamster were created in this era. Many have built successful businesses and have had successful exits

Mobile Data 3.0 - Starting now?
So what's next for Mobile 3.0. Certainly there's much talk in the marketplace around new business models and new technologies. Mobile advertising is a pretty interesting space these days, led by companies like AdMob, Medio, and ThirdScreenMedia, which are bringing new monetization models to the wireless space. Rich Media presentiation layers are another interesting space with Flash-lite beginning to build momentum (at least at Verizon), and AJAX-browsers, and AJAX-widgets starting to make their way out into the mobile world. The jury is out on mobile video in my opinion -- a ton of investment is flowing into the space, whether unicast or broadcast, but my guess is that this has still 3-5 years of technology work before it becomes real.

More to come, as CTIA Orlando kicks off in two weeks...

7 Themes from GSM World Congress

1. VIDEO – REAL OR NOT? - Was pretty interesting to see the progress on the mobile video front (lots of technology work still to do here to make the economics work, but some interesting progress); quite a few EMEA operators have pretty empty UMTS/HSDPA networks so seem less concerned about the spectrum/transport cost than most US operators (was a surprise to me). Companies such as Streamezzo, Penthera are early but some interesting “demos” in this area beyond MobiTV’s historical pitch



2. BROADCAST TECHNOLOGIES - Broadcast technologies such as DVB-H and MediaFlo were also “hot” topics, where a lot of investment spend is headed, although its very early days



3. LOCATION SERVICES (Round 3) - Location-based services seem to be in their 2nd year of the new “renaissance” now that high-accuracy SUPL is starting to really make its way into GSM handsets and expand from the small CDMA corner of the world. No breakthroughs yet beyond the basic navigation and location-finding apps, but plenty of experimentation on moblogging, location-tagged notes, location-enabled social networks, and otherwise..



4. MOVING THE HEAVY STUFF - Some interesting new technologies on transcoding/compression and wireless CDN networks to move around the “heavy” stuff whether photos or videos or otherwise. Similar issues to the Akamai, I-Beam, and other encoder battles of the wireline internet in 1998 I’d observe (i.e. the wireline dial-up to DSL/Cable transition)



5. MOBILE ADVERTISING (real traction starting) - Of course lots of activity on mobile advertising of course – Amobee and AdMob with growing traction, and a few others looking for their angles (rumor: was ThirdScreen media sold to AOL? – was a rumor running around the show – I haven’t talked to Tom B yet to find out)



6. OFF-DECK - European operator openness to off-deck monetization – in private, heard quite a number of senior execs at the operators express openness about this, that I had never heard before. The hardline days of Voda-Live or bust or on-deck IMODE only are softening to be open to credible “incremental revenue” plays even if off-deck. Curious to get your take sometime on how Cingular/ATT would view this going forward.



7. HERE COME THE CHINESE - More broadly as a multi-year trend, was fascinating to see the continued aggressive entry of ZTE, Huawei, Quanta, HTC, and many of the asian players that are helping drive down CAPEX spend versus the traditional incumbents on both network and handset layer (would be tough to be an Alcatel right now I’d think, but this price pressure should be great for Cingular I’d imagine) - see next post

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